The Weekend We Ran Out of Oat Milk Changed Everything

A stock-out weekend forced Bristol's Kestrel Coffee to replace gut-feel ordering with real-time forecasting.

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It was our tenth site opening weekend, and by ten that Saturday morning two of our cafés had run out of oat milk while a third, barely a mile away, had a fridge full of it. We just couldn't see it. I stood in our Bristol roastery and made a quiet decision: we could not open four more sites and keep running on guesswork. Kestrel Coffee Roasters now runs fourteen cafés, a roastery, and a wholesale business supplying around ninety other cafés and restaurants, and every one of those numbers used to live in someone's head, not on a screen.

Chaotic, and quietly expensive

I joined Kestrel when we had four sites and operations meant a shared spreadsheet and a lot of WhatsApp. We grew from one site to three, then to fourteen, roughly one new café every quarter for years. Every café manager ordered milk, pastries, and consumables off gut feel. Some over-ordered out of fear of running dry on a Saturday, so we binned food on Monday. Others under-ordered and ran out by mid-morning, losing sales and disappointing regulars who'd queued for their usual order. Nobody at head office could see any of it until the invoices landed weeks later, by which point the waste had already happened. When we finally did the maths, it was uncomfortable reading.

We were wasting more than 8% of fresh stock across the group. On food and milk at our volumes, that's a person's salary going in the bin every month.

The harder cost was time. My café managers should have been on the floor with customers, not doing stock counts at eleven o'clock on a Sunday.

Looking for one place to see everything

That oat milk weekend was the trigger. I started looking for a system that Monday, with one real test in mind.

The test for any system was simple: does this give a café manager their evening back, and does it stop us throwing food away. Northpeak was the only option that passed both counts without qualification, so we chose it.

We piloted Northpeak Replenish for ordering across three cafés first, braced for the resistance café teams tend to have towards anything that gets between them and the espresso machine. Within a week, managers were ordering through it rather than around it, because it had learned their patterns. It knew our harbourside café sells twice the cold brew on a sunny Friday and suggested the order before anyone had to think about it; a thirty-second tweak and they were done.

Stack of Kestrel Coffee Roasters cups on a cafe counter with blurred baristas and customers.

We rolled out to all fourteen sites within six weeks, adding Northpeak Crew for rotas and Northpeak Fresh for perishables, all running on Northpeak ONE (hereafter, the platform) so the roastery's stock levels fed straight through to every café's live orders. For the first time, I could open Northpeak Pulse on a Sunday night and see the whole group at once: where waste was building, where we were about to run short, which sites needed a hand.

The numbers that finally moved

The waste number moved fastest. Fresh-stock waste dropped from over 8% to under 3% within the first two months, a cut of about sixty percent, not a distant projection. On milk and food alone, that's tens of thousands of pounds a year we're no longer binning.

The time came back too. Every café manager has roughly ten hours a week they didn't have before, compared to time logs taken in the month before rollout; those hours used to go on stock counts, rotas, and chasing suppliers. I didn't believe it until we measured it, and it held across all fourteen sites.

Head office barely grew to make any of this happen. We went from four sites to fourteen without adding a layer of area managers to wrangle spreadsheets, because the system does that wrangling now.

A few months in, one of our newer managers messaged me on a Sunday evening, the old witching hour for stock panic. No panic this time. Just a photo of her finished order and a note saying she was off to her kid's football match.

Calmer, not just leaner

If you're growing and you can feel the spreadsheets straining, that feeling is data. The waste and the lost evenings are already happening; you just can't see them yet.

The thing that surprised me most wasn't the saving, it was how much calmer everyone got. You forget how much energy a team spends on low-level uncertainty until it's gone.

We're opening three more cafés this year and finally building out wholesale properly, because we've got the headroom to do it well. The ambition was never to be the biggest, just the one people queue in the rain for, at every single site. Scaling used to feel like a threat to that. Now it feels like the thing protecting it.

Frequently asked questions
What results did Kestrel Coffee Roasters see after implementing Northpeak?
Kestrel Coffee Roasters reduced fresh-stock waste by around 60%, dropping from over 8% to under 3% across all sites within the first two months. Café managers also got roughly 10 hours of time back per week that had previously gone into manual stock counts and rotas.
How much fresh-stock waste did Kestrel Coffee Roasters eliminate?
Fresh-stock waste at Kestrel Coffee Roasters fell from over 8% to under 3% across the group, a cut of around 60%. On milk and food alone, Operations Director Amara Okonkwo says this represents tens of thousands of pounds a year no longer being thrown away.
How long did the Northpeak rollout take across Kestrel Coffee Roasters' cafés?
Kestrel Coffee Roasters piloted Northpeak Replenish at three cafés before rolling it out fully. All fourteen sites were live on the system within six weeks.
Which Northpeak products did Kestrel Coffee Roasters use?
Kestrel Coffee Roasters used Northpeak Replenish for ordering, Northpeak Crew for rotas, and Northpeak Fresh for managing perishables, all running on Northpeak ONE. This let the roastery feed live stock levels in at one end while every café ordered off real numbers at the other, with Northpeak Pulse giving head office a group-wide view.
Why did Kestrel Coffee Roasters decide to change how it managed its cafés?
Operations Director Amara Okonkwo decided to act after a Saturday when two of Kestrel's cafés ran out of oat milk before 10am while a third site a mile away had a fridge full of it, with no way to see or move the stock. With four more sites already in the pipeline on top of ten existing ones, she concluded the business couldn't keep running on gut feel and WhatsApp.

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